Forrester Predicts AI Will Augment More Jobs Than It Replaces by 2030

Forrester, a leading research and advisory firm, forecasts that artificial intelligence (AI) and automation will eliminate 10.4 million jobs in the United States by 2030, representing a 6.1 percent reduction in the workforce. However, the firm also predicts that AI will augment one in five roles, suggesting a more nuanced impact on employment.

Structural Shift, Not Sudden Collapse

J.P. Gownder, Forrester's vice president and principal analyst, emphasizes that this shift is structural rather than a sudden collapse. 'The numbers are meaningful and worthy of our attention,' Gownder states, comparing the projected job losses to the 8.7 million jobs lost during the Great Recession. Unlike the cyclical and macroeconomic nature of recession-related job losses, the AI-driven job reductions are permanent and structural.

Modest Impact with Real Consequences

Forrester models a 'real but modest impact' between 2025 and 2030, indicating that large-scale replacement of human workers by AI remains unlikely. The firm notes that for AI to replace human talent at scale, labor productivity would need to accelerate significantly. Instead, the more realistic scenario is that AI will augment one in five roles, necessitating investments in staff training to prepare for the new age of work.

Industry Moves and Risks

In the tech industry, some Software as a Service (SaaS) providers, such as Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow, are already making moves to replace parts of the workforce with AI. However, Forrester warns of the risks associated with over-automating roles based on AI hype, which can result in costly pullbacks, damaged reputations, and weakened employee experiences. Companies like Duolingo and Klarna have already rolled back their efforts to replace human workers with AI.

Financial Motivations and AI Scapegoat

Gownder recalls discussions with clients seeking advice on laying off 20 percent of their staff, often citing AI as the reason. 'When we ask if they have a mature, vetted AI app ready to fill in those jobs, nine out of ten times, the answer is no – and they haven't even started. So most of the layoffs are financially driven and AI is just the scapegoat, at least today,' he says.

Evolution of AI and Automation

Since Forrester's previous AI jobs forecast in 2023, agentic AI has entered the market, and organizations are using it to create more accurate and problem-specific applications. Generative AI projects, both successes and failures, are teaching the market how to achieve better results. Forrester now predicts that 50 percent of US jobs lost to automation will come from generative AI, up from 29 percent in the earlier forecast. Additionally, the 20 percent of positions influenced by AI represents a nearly fourfold increase compared to the 2023 forecast.

Forward-Looking Outlook

While AI and automation will lead to job losses, Forrester believes that an imminent AI job apocalypse is not on the horizon. In the next five years, the firm expects that work will still be mostly undertaken by humans, with AI taking over some workflows and tasks. This outlook suggests that businesses and policymakers must focus on preparing the workforce for the augmented roles that AI will bring, rather than bracing for a complete overhaul of the job market.

References

• AI and automation could erase 10.4 million US roles by 2030 • The Register